Opportunities and prospects of assessment, identification of factors and ways of increase in elasticity of production of agricultural products to change of weather and climatic conditions in Primorsky Kray
Stanislav V. Podolskiy
Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russia
Global climate changes have negative effect on the volume, structure of production and quality of agricultural production. There is an increase in frequency of origin of extreme weather events to which agricultural vendors do not manage to adapt.
The conducted researches show that the considerable deviations of the actual weather conditions from normal are available and accrue. The volumes of agricultural production which are defined, first of all, by productivity of different crops are not elastic in relation to changes of climatic variables. In world practice a row of the models designed to increase productivity in adverse weather conditions, including APSIM v7.5, SARRA-H v3.2, CMIP5 is used, each of which has the advantages and shortcomings.
Adaptation and elasticity of agricultural production to weather and climatic changes is one of components of effective management in agriculture, especially in terrains with the monsoonal nature of climate, such as Primorsky Kray. Therefore it is obviously important:
- to carry out the review and the analysis of efficiency of use of different methods and indices of assessment of elasticity of production of crops to weather and climatic changes;
- to research possibilities of development of model and indices of assessment of the elasticity of production of crops to changes of weather climatic conditions adjusted for specifics of climate of Primorsky Kray;
- to carry out assessment of elasticity and a level of adaptation of production of the main crops (wheat, rice, soy, etc.) to changes of weather climatic conditions of Primorsky Kray and also factors, on it influencing;
- to justify and offer the recommendations about increase in elasticity and adaptation of production of crops, both to short-term (weather), and to long-term (climatic) changes.
In this regard there is a need of search of reliable statistical information about the speaker of productivity of the main crops not only across Primorsky Kray and settlements, but also on separate peasant farms.
Enhancement of theoretical model of assessment of elasticity of agricultural production to climatic changes, including taking into account regional specifics, will allow to justify and develop actions for the development of agrometeorological support of agricultural branch of Primorsky Kray. Thereby, increase in a level of adaptation of agricultural production to changes of weather climatic conditions in the edge is provided. It opens a possibility of improving the operational and economic performance of activities of the agricultural enterprises of Primorsky Kray in the existing climatic conditions.